The African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that Zambia faces an annual development financing shortfall of about $5.4 billion through 2030. In an October 23 statement highlighting its 2026 country report, the bank put annual funding needs for economic transformation at $6.9 billion. The gap represents investment resources still to be mobilised, not an immediate debt repayment obligation.
The financing needs cover infrastructure, local processing of raw materials, agribusiness and economic diversification. The AfDB recommends improving the country’s ability to attract private capital while developing suitable public and concessional funding for long-term projects.
Domestic resource mobilisation has improved, according to the bank, with domestic financing covering about 81% of the national budget in 2025. That achievement does not close the investment requirements identified for the coming years. The report recommends broadening the tax base, simplifying collection procedures and making greater use of digital tools to improve compliance.
To bring in more investment, the AfDB also highlights public-private partnerships. Zambia’s legal framework, revised in 2023, allows such arrangements for smaller projects, including at the local level. The bank sees a role for concessional finance and risk-sharing instruments in developing projects capable of attracting lenders and investors.
The report also points to municipal, green and social bonds, alongside pension-fund savings and institutional investors, as potential sources of long-term capital. Priority sectors include adding value to copper and other natural resources, higher-value agricultural processing and climate-resilient infrastructure.
The 2026 country report, made available in July and highlighted again in October, therefore identifies an estimated yearly development funding gap. It does not announce a new $5.4 billion loan or a disbursement schedule.