The Republic of Congo could record a fiscal surplus equal to 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, compared with 0.6% in 2025, according to the thirteenth edition of the country’s Economic Update released by the World Bank on Tuesday, 10 November 2026.
The Bank also forecasts 4.4% economic growth in 2026 and inflation of 3.8%. It links the stronger outlook to expected higher oil prices, a major driver of government revenue in the Republic of Congo. The 2026 figures are forecasts, not final budget execution results.
A smaller surplus expected beyond 2026
The outlook weakens as oil prices gradually return to more normal levels in 2027–2028. The World Bank projects average growth of 3.7% over that period, while the fiscal surplus is expected to fall to 2.3% of GDP in the medium term.
The change between the 2025 fiscal balance and the 2026 forecast amounts to 3.1 percentage points of GDP. This is a change in a fiscal balance expressed relative to national output, not a 3.1% increase in government revenue measured in currency.
Government arrears remain a central issue
The report devotes particular attention to government payment arrears. According to the World Bank, unpaid obligations put pressure on businesses’ cash flow, restrict financing and weigh on investment and job creation.
The Bank calls for stronger debt-service monitoring, cash management and fiscal discipline, together with safeguards against the accumulation of new arrears. It sees the temporary oil windfall as an opportunity to reduce the backlog of unpaid obligations.
Rick Tsouck Ibounde, a lead economist and co-author of the report, has urged the country to turn short-term oil revenues into lasting improvements in public financial management. The projections released on 10 November form part of the Bank’s medium-term economic outlook.