The Republic of Congo’s estimated public investment spending for 2025 shrank by CFAF151 billion between two International Monetary Fund assessments. Its report published in April 2026 put the amount at CFAF267 billion, down from CFAF418 billion in an earlier projection, a 36.1% downward revision. Fresh forecasts released by the World Bank on Tuesday, 10 November, bring these spending choices into focus as Brazzaville anticipates an improvement in its fiscal accounts.
The same IMF table shows the reverse movement in purchases of goods and services, revised from CFAF210 billion to CFAF560 billion. The extra CFAF350 billion on that item alone far exceeds the CFAF59 billion increase in overall expenditure estimates, from CFAF2,108 billion to CFAF2,167 billion. Transfers were revised down by CFAF125 billion and capital spending by CFAF151 billion. The changing composition of expenditure left less funding allocated to public investment.
In CFAF billion
Source: IMF Country Report 26/78 (April 2026), Table 1, earlier CR 25/75 and updated 2025 PFA estimates
| Earlier forecast | Revised estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goods and services | 210 | 560 |
| Public investment | 418 | 267 |
| Transfers | 590 | 465 |
Public purchases surge while spending on investment barely moves
The comparison with the previous fiscal year underscores the shift. Spending on goods and services rose from CFAF205 billion actually recorded in 2024 to an estimated CFAF560 billion in 2025, an increase of CFAF355 billion, or 173.2%. IMF estimates for public investment edged from CFAF264 billion to CFAF267 billion over the same period. The figures reflect different reporting stages, actual outturns for 2024 and estimated spending for 2025.
Accounting treatment is central to what this increase means. The IMF retained its historical goods-and-services classification for consistency across its time series, while Congolese authorities classified part of the additional expenditure as investment under a newer public-finance framework. The Fund noted uncertainty over the precise nature of those outlays. The CFAF151 billion gap thus reflects a comparable IMF budget category rather than a verified count of abandoned construction projects.
Weaker oil receipts tightened the budget. Hydrocarbon revenue is estimated at CFAF995 billion in 2025, against CFAF1,213 billion actually collected in 2024, a drop of CFAF218 billion, or 18%. Non-oil receipts moved the other way, rising from CFAF1,010 billion to CFAF1,167 billion, a gain of CFAF157 billion. The tax improvement did not offset the oil revenue decline. Overall public revenue was estimated at CFAF2,197 billion against CFAF2,263 billion in 2024.
In CFAF billion
Source: IMF Country Report 26/78 (April 2026), Table 1, 2024 actual and 2025 estimates
| Oil revenue | Non-oil revenue | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 actual | 1,213 | 1,010 |
| 2025 estimate | 995 | 1,167 |
A projected surplus meets a still-heavy debt burden
Spending changes and oil receipts help explain the marked revision to the fiscal balance. The IMF had previously expected a CFAF352 billion surplus for 2025. Its assessment published in April lowered that figure to CFAF30 billion, a CFAF322 billion reduction. This assessment, based on information available during its 2025 mission, precedes more recent World Bank forecasts.
In its economic update launched on 10 November 2026, the World Bank put the 2025 fiscal surplus at 0.6% of GDP and projected an increase to 3.7% for 2026, supported in particular by a forecast rise in oil prices. It expects 4.4% economic growth and 3.8% inflation this year. As oil prices normalize from 2027–2028, the Bank projects a fiscal surplus of about 2.3% of GDP over the medium term.
Public debt remains substantial even when the annual fiscal balance improves. In its assessment completed in February, the IMF estimated total government debt at 97.2% of GDP at end-2025, comprising domestic obligations of 58.9% of GDP and external debt at 38.4%, subject to rounding. A joint debt sustainability analysis in the same report says the ratio had peaked at 102.9% in 2023. Treasury debt servicing continues to absorb cash and expose banks that hold government securities.
Unpaid bills squeeze business financing
At the end of September 2025, the IMF counted CFAF238 billion in expenditure commitments that had yet to be paid, equivalent to around 2.6% of GDP. Such unpaid bills become formal budget arrears if still outstanding at the end of the fiscal year. In its 10 November update, the World Bank links accumulated arrears to businesses’ cash-flow problems, leaving them with fewer resources for investment and hiring.
Debt repayments have also driven international borrowing. According to the IMF, Brazzaville issued a combined $930 million in Eurobonds in November and December 2025, notably to refinance domestic Treasury securities falling due from November 2025 through February 2026. The $670 million November tranche carried a 9.875% coupon. Those transactions followed the reprofiling of CFAF1,136 billion in Congolese domestic Treasury debt in late 2024.